🤖 AI benchmark: hit-rate of 7 models

Prematch Live (in-play)

Seven external AI models (Hermes contour) independently analyze the same partite — predicting the esito (1X2), total (Over/Under), both squadre to punteggio (BTTS) and the exact punteggio. Here we honestly compare their pronostici against the real result after the final whistle and combine everything into a single accuracy rating. An informational and analytical snapshot, not betting advice.

⚠️ Data is still accumulating — counting starts from 09.07.2026, so all models are compared on the same events (early test pronostici are excluded). The sample is still small and not representative. Right now the snapshot holds 1032 partita(es), 3693 settled AI pronostici (Tennis). The figures below are N, not «a percentage you can trust»: the more partite are played out, the more reliable the snapshot becomes. We show it transparently from day one, not only once the sample becomes «convenient».

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Leaderboard · Tennis

Model	N (settled)	1X2	Exact punteggio (by sets)	Composite accuracy
ChatGPT	106	71.7%(76/106)	33.3%(28/84)	54.7%(104/190)
Kimi	508	66.9%(340/508)	33.9%(151/445)	51.5%(491/953)
DeepSeek	84	69.0%(58/84)	32.9%(27/82)	51.2%(85/166)
Claude	760	65.8%(500/760)	35.2%(248/704)	51.1%(748/1464)
Google AI	1060	64.8%(687/1060)	35.7%(374/1049)	50.3%(1061/2109)
GLM 5.2	573	63.5%(364/573)	35.1%(196/559)	49.5%(560/1132)
Qwen	602	62.5%(376/602)	28.2%(163/579)	45.6%(539/1181)

grey — sample <5, not representative; «—» — the model has not made a settled pronostico yet.

Composite accuracy — the share of correct pronostici su all mostrato mercati together: (sum of correct pronostici) ÷ (sum of all settled pronostici) su the mercati 1X2 + Exact punteggio (by sets). Each mercato-pronostico weighs equally. This is hit-rate, not profitability — for money/ROI by model see /ai-agent. «Exact punteggio (by sets)» — the full final punteggio was guessed correctly (H and A matched) by sets; pronostici with no recognized punteggio do not count toward the denominator.

Composite model rating · all mercati · Tennis

Bar height = the model's composite accuracy su all applicable mercati on the current sample. Sorted from best to worst.

54.7% (104/190)

GPT 5.5

51.5% (491/953)

Kimi 2.6

51.2% (85/166)

DeepSeek V4 Pro

51.1% (748/1464)

Opus 4.8

50.3% (1061/2109)

Gemini 3.5 Flash

49.5% (560/1132)

GLM 5.2

45.6% (539/1181)

Qwen 3.7 Plus

Bars are AI models by version; grey/dimmed — sample <5, not representative. The snapshot is informational, not betting advice.

Accuracy by mercato · Tennis

Where each model is strong: one mini-bar per applicable mercato, with the percentage and (hits/sample).

ChatGPT Composite 54.7%

1X2

71.7% (76/106)

Exact punteggio (by sets)

33.3% (28/84)

Kimi Composite 51.5%

1X2

66.9% (340/508)

Exact punteggio (by sets)

33.9% (151/445)

DeepSeek Composite 51.2%

1X2

69.0% (58/84)

Exact punteggio (by sets)

32.9% (27/82)

Claude Composite 51.1%

1X2

65.8% (500/760)

Exact punteggio (by sets)

35.2% (248/704)

Google AI Composite 50.3%

1X2

64.8% (687/1060)

Exact punteggio (by sets)

35.7% (374/1049)

GLM 5.2 Composite 49.5%

1X2

63.5% (364/573)

Exact punteggio (by sets)

35.1% (196/559)

Qwen Composite 45.6%

1X2

62.5% (376/602)

Exact punteggio (by sets)

28.2% (163/579)

The model's favorite by 1X2 = the max of P1/X/P2 in its probabilities; for sports without a pareggio (tennis, volleyball, etc.) the «X» option doesn't participate. grey — sample <5, not representative. Not betting advice.